2015 Academy Awards Looks Like A Two-Category Race

This is one of the poster designs that were unveiled in the Academy Awards Tumblr site, with the statue covered by categories and show biz jargon.
Anyway, the first stage of the award season is done, and it looks like the Academy Awards on February 22nd will be a two-category race...Best Picture and Best Actor.

There's nothing more boring than an Oscars show where all the big nominations, the ones even casual fans care about, are already decided. That's the case for the supporting categories and Best Actress. We'll get to that later, but first...the undecided categories:

Thanks to wins from the Screen Actors Guild and Producers Guild, Birdman is being considered as a firm choice for Best Picture when the Oscars are given out on February 22nd. It's a pretty way-out look at an actor trying to shed the super hero that made him famous, and actually become a real actor. It's a great comeback for Michael Keaton, and a great story told and directed by Alejandro Gonzalez Iñarritu. Boyhood still has momentum from the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, and may gain a bit when the Directors Guild and Writers Guild give out their awards in February. Those awards, and the BAFTAs on February 8th, will decide who will have the edge in the final days before the big event.

That'll also be the case for Best Actor, which is now down to Keaton and Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything. Both got Golden Globes, while Redmayne won at the SAG awards. It's likely Redmayne may get the edge at the BAFTAs, but might lose votes to Ralph Fiennes and Benedict Cumberbatch, giving Keaton the win.  If the BAFTAs choose Cumberbatch (and it would make sense if you've seen The Imitation Game already) or Fiennes, it's anyone's race.

Now for the races already settled:

When Whiplash was released, and people got a chance to see J.K. Simmons as the cruel music teacher, Fletcher, talk of him getting an Academy Award started. It's also surprising, since it's more likely you'll see him sell Farmers Insurance than creating a shocking movie performance. Then again, he was also Spider-Man's least favorite newspaper publisher and Juno's dad. The movie just arrived in one theater in Reno, as if it was hiding from more popular movies like American Sniper and The Wedding Ringer and Oscar contenders like Selma, Wild and The Imitation Game. Whiplash should have a more extensive release than just one screen, but at least Simmons will get notice when he hosts Saturday Night Live this weekend.

Boyhood is readily available, thanks to streaming sites and Redbox. Before that, it's been getting positive reviews in theaters, as the story of a boy growing up that was literally 12 years in the making. Patricia Arquette as the mom, Olivia, has been praised as a woman who has evolved as her children have grown, then is worried that now that they're gone, her life is done. The son, Mason, disagrees, and maybe a mini-sequel should be made to show he's right. Anyway, Arquette has been picking up awards, including a Screen Actors Guild Award last night, and the only complaint people have is that she can't memorize an acceptance speech. Maybe by the time she arrives at the Dolby Theater, she will...not that it matters.

The third decided race is Best Actress, most likely to be won by Julianne Moore for Still Alice. This movie is practically unknown outside major cities, which is a crime. Her portrayal as a woman in her 50's dealing with the early stages of Alzheimer's is wonderful. It would be better if more people didn't have to wait until the night before the Oscars to see it.
It is in 38 screens, much less than Wild, with Reese Witherspoon, which is in more than 500 screens. The film's website says it will go into "wide release" (including Reno) on February 13th, which is a bad date because it's the same day as 50 Shades of Grey and Kingsman: The Secret Service. It would have been better if it was the week before, where its competition would be Seventh Son and Jupiter Ascending. Moore will get the public's attention and admiration for Still Alice, but it should be a lot sooner.

While casual fans care about acting and Best Picture, film buffs care about other big categories, like Best Director. Richard Linklater still looks like the top choice, but that won't be certain until the  Director's Guild Awards February 7th, then the BAFTAs on the 8th. If Birdman takes either of those awards that weekend, the race gets more interesting.
As for writing, Adapted Screenplay still looks like a battle royal. The BAFTAs and WGAs should bring in more focus. For now, The Imitation Game, American Sniper and Gone Girl seem to be leading in Adapted Screenplay, while Boyhood and Birdman are favored in Original Screenplay. However, the WGAs  only have Boyhood in Original Screenplay against movies like Whiplash and Foxcatcher, while Adapted Screenplay has Guardians of the Galaxy in the final mix. That's mainly due to eligibility rules, but it would be amazing if GoG got it. It's more likely Imitation Game will could get it.

The BAFTAs should also be great if The Lego Movie, which isn't in the Oscars because the voters thought Legos were too high-tech for them (as was the movie), won for Best Animated Film. However, there could be the chance of an upset with The Boxtrolls. Birdman is also up for Best Score, and a win there would be a sign to the Oscars to fix its rules on what could be eligible for that category.

Oscar season will really get tense as we head into February. At least we can relax by looking at more frivolous events, like Super Bowl XLIX.

Oscar Nominations: Birds, Boys, Grand Hotels, But A Girl And a King Are Gone

As I'm typing this, it's been nearly two and a half hours after the Academy Award nominations have been announced.

The main talking point is likely to be Boyhood snagging six nominations, and being the odds-on favorite to get Best Picture. It's a coming of age story that's literally 12 years in the making, but the story and direction have been two of many reasons why it is now the favorite.
Birdman is also kind of a gimmick because it seems to be one long take, but it also has nine nominatons, and might steal Original Screenplay and maybe Best Actor.
The Grand Budapest Hotel, now playing on HBO's side channels (HBO2 and HBO Comedy mainly), also did well with nine nods. While it's a candy colored look at the adventures of a concierge between the wars, I still say Moonrise Kingdom was better.

Now let's look at the snubs....

Selma getting shut out of Direction, Actor and Adapted Screenplay will be discussed for weeks, The whispering campaign against it apparently worked, which proves once and for all that there's no difference between political campaigns and Oscar campaigns. Those who were upset that the movie allegedly lied about President Johnson's commitment to civil rights must feel justified a bit. It did make Best Picture, but Ana DuVerney and David Oyelowo more than deserved to make the final cut. Besides, the movie made it clear Johnson was worried about losing a lot of Southern Democratic voters if he was too agressive to make sure Blacks could vote without unfair barriers. However, Selma and a meeting with Governor Wallace changed his mind.
It might get Best Song, as it did at the Globes, but I suspect Glen Campbell could win that award because of sentimental reason. It's from I'll Be Me, his documentary of his final tour as he's battling Alzheimer's.

As expected, Rosamund Pike got in for Best Actress for Gone Girl. Her portrayal of a wronged wife was unforgettable, but Gillian Flynn should have gotten a nod for Adapted Screenplay, and it was one very good film.

Some are complaining Jennifer Aniston should have been in for Cake, thanks to her aggressive campaigning. However, the movie was not well received, or seen widely.

It's also too bad Lorde didn't get in the Best Song race for "Yellow Flicker Beat" from Mockingjay. I bet "The Hanging Tree" would have made it, but it's not eligible because the lyrics are part of the book. As I said, it'll be between Selma and I'll Be Me.

The Lego Movie got Best Song for "Everything is Awesome", but it wasn't awesome enough to get Best Animated Feature? Is it because there's too many superheroes in it, or is it because there's a section that isn't animated? It's still a great mix of CGI and stop action animation. It's also on HBO, so see for yourself.

It's also a crime that Life Itself, the story of Roger Ebert, didn't make Best Documentary, and Force Majeure got snubbed from Best Foreign Language Film. This will wind up being good news for CitizenFour and Leviathan, respectively.

Now to some surprises:

Whiplash getting in Best Picture race along with Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actor. That shows it's getting recognition as a story about how far someone will go for perfection.

Nightcrawler with Jake Gyllenhaal makes Original Screenplay, even though it has been in very limited release. Some were hoping for him getting an acting nod, along with Rene Russo.

Inherent Vice gets Adapted Screenplay, even though it's really puzzling. It clearly took Gone Girl's spot. That category should be a very close race

Oscar is finally saying "Make Mine Marvel":  three of its films are up for Visual Effects. It could be between Interstellar and Guardians of the Galaxy, with Dawn of the Planet of the Apes as a dark horse, Guardians will be an easy choice for Makeup/Hairstyling, despite a challenge from Grand Budapest Hotel.

Also, Big Hero 6 is up for Best Animated Feature. That category may be more obscure than recent years because there's no Disney/Pixar nominee (since Big Hero 6 is considered Marvel). Two of the nominees, Princess Kayuga and Song of the Sea, have had limited releases. If it wins, How To Train Your Dragon 2 could be the comeback story of the year. While it was more popular overseas, the movie didn't get a lot of attention in the states. It's readily available through DVD and streaming, and it's likely to get a second look.

I'll likely be back after the Critics Choice Awards are given out. Boyhood should get Best Picture here, since the critics have already rewarded it in city awards for weeks. If Selma does well, this will make the Academy look bad,

Update:  Boyhood and Birdman did dominate the Critics Choice Awards, but it looks like Boyhood is headed towards Best Picture come Oscar time. Michael Keaton's victory means we could have a real race for Best Actor. It all depends on what will happen with the Screen Actors Guild awards later this month. Selma got Best Song again, which means it could be the favorite for that category. It should be in the race for more, of course. Three movies that weren't nominated did wind up making an impression:  The Lego Movie for Animation, Life Itself for Best Documentary (which was expected), and  Force Majeure for Foreign Film,

Two Best Picture Possibilities: Boyhood and Selma

The Golden Globes show, and movie award season, is just hours away. I've been able to catch up with the list of nominated movies available in Reno. It's not quite as much as much as the selection I used to enjoy in Sacramento. Otherwise, I would have seen Whiplash and Foxcatcher by now. It seems those movies won't be in Reno until they reach Redbox. American Sniper, though, will likely be in theaters sooner or later.

Anyway, this weekend, I got to see two likely Best Picture nominees when the Academy makes its choices on Thursday. Thanks to Redbox, I saw Boyhood, a movie that was literally 12 years in the making, Writer and director Richard Linklater decided to make a movie about a boy's life from six to 18 in real time. That means the main character Mason, played by Ellar Coltrane, was filmed all that time. That also goes for his sister Samantha, played by Lorilei Linklater (yep, his daughter), and the parents played by Ethan Hawke and Patricia Arquette. The movie shows Mason's milestones, and how his family evolves with him. It's been getting attention because Linklater did this coming-of-age story in real time. The main actors actually had to set aside time to make the movie, no matter what they were doing.

While the movie centers on Mason's boyhood days, it also shows how the parents evolve, too. Arquette starts as a single mom set to move to Houston and go back to school, She marries her professor, but that does not work. There's a scene at the dinner table that is very difficult to see.
Hawke, as Mason Sr., starts as a dad who seems a bit irresponsible, but he also changes his life. Samantha's relationship with her mom is also interesting. There's some really good acting by the main characters. Usually a coming of age movie covering 12 years involves having more than one actor for the son or daughter. Not here.

The movie has been the near-unanimous choice for Best Picture by lots of movie critics competitions from L-A to New York. Still, if there's any flaw in the movie, it doesn't have much of a plot. It's just the story of a boy, and the many milestones in his life. It's also very long, at 2:45, which may have put off some Oscar voters. Still, the acting and directing in this movie are still first-rate. It'll probably do very well in the Spirit Awards, but I don't think it's an absolute lock for Best Picture in any of the upcoming awards. There's already been some backlash, but the real test will start tonight.

Then I went to see Selma, which has been under historic scrutiny lately. While I did read up on it, I just looked at the movie as the story of how injustice was fought by Martin Luther King and his supporters. People are especially upset that it makes President Johnson look like someone who didn't care Blacks were being killed in the South just because they want to vote. I think he cared, but he was obsessed with other things, poverty and Vietnam especially. Maybe he thought if he solved those problems, he could do everything after that without much opposition. He does figure out King was right, and it's done in an interesting way.

I was also impressed by Ana DuVernay's direction. Early in the movie, we see four girls in a church talking about things, then an explosion suddenly happens. We see it's that church that was blown up in Birmingham, AL in the fall of 1963. It makes a big impression of what someone people will do to prevent Blacks from exercising a right the Constitution gave them nearly a hundred years before.
There's also a scene where Coretta Scott King (Carmen Ejogo) is hearing a tape supposedly delivered by the FBI (which historians say never happened, but a similar note was sent) that also supposedly gives proof King cheated on his wife. Seeing both of them dealing with that tape, whether it's true or not, speaks volumes of how much they are devoted to each other. The scenes of the march at the Pettis Bridge, including the violent response from the Alabama state troopers, was also very impressive.

David Oyelowo is just incredible as King, especially when he makes his speeches calling for the President to do something. Ejogo is also good as Mrs. King. Tom Wilkinson is also very good as LBJ, but Tim Roth was even better as Governor George Wallace. It is amazing what he does to preserve his state's way of life, while claiming his hands are tied when it comes to county offivials and sheriffs doing what they can to keep Blacks from registering. Oyelowo could conceivably win for Best Actor, and DuVernay could give Alejandro Gonzalez Inrarritu a run for his money in the Best Director race, too.

However, it is too bad the producers took too long to get screeners to SAG and BAFTA voters, which is why the movie won't be part of those award shows. That also means the last word on who is the best in movies this year will come on Oscar night. The Globes and the Critics Choice Awards will be this year's version of the "New Hampshire Primary" of the award season, while the SAGs won't be "Super Tuesday". No matter what, the real race starts Thursday.

For the record, Birdman should be Best Picture. It may also have a gimmick, just like Boyhood, but its story of an actor trying to escape the one role he's been identified with, and how that story is told,
makes it the Best Movie this year.