The End of Awards Week: What Have We Learned?

After four award shows in one week, or two according to award snobs, the races for the major Academy Awards seem to be shaking out, but not as some expected.

Before the Oscar nominations were announced a few days ago, many people expected Tom Hanks for Best Actor, Oprah Winfrey for Supporting Actress, Robert Redford for Best Actor, and Inside Lleywn Davis and The Butler (we know which one) in the Best Picture list.

Matthew McConaughey for Best Actor? Maybe, but not a front-runner for that award. Too much smell from all those sad rom-coms in his career.

Her for any award? A man in love with his computer? Eeewww. Why is that a movie? What's next, remaking Flowers In The....never mind.

Well, this is what we've learned: some have settled, but Best Picture may lead to a real debate.

McConaughey is washing all the rom-coms out of his hair. His performance in  Dallas Buyers Club got less attention than Chiwetel Ejiofor's performance in 12 Years A Slave. After sweeping three award shows, it looks like he is the front-runner.There will be a lot of lobbying for Ejiofor, who may be held back by the reluctance of some people to see his movie. True, 12 Years A Slave is a brutal look at slavery, but it's real, and should be seen. Ejiofor is great as a free Black man who is sold into slavery, and endures a lot of pain and suffering to get back his freedom. This competition could get close in the final days of voting, but I'm starting to think McConaughey will win. I'll root for Ejiofor, though.

Supporting Actor is done. It was done the second Jared Leto's nomination was announced.

On the female side, Cate Blanchett may be a lock for Blue Jasmine. The only factor that could derail that result is Amy Adams getting five nominations in less than ten years, and some may say she is due for a win. Blanchett won previously for The Aviator. Still, it looks like it will be a win for Blanchett.

Supporting Actress had been forecast as a two-woman race between Jennifer Lawrence and Lupita Nyong'o, but Nyong'o may win here. There's hasn't been an actor winning two years in a row since Tom Hanks in 1994, and it's unlikely that's going to change this year.

Best Director is as done as Supporting Actor. Alfonso Cuaron is the easy winner for Gravity.

For writing, Spike Jonze may win for Her, because the story is just a new take on love. Adapted Screenplay should go to 12 Years A Slave.

Now, Best Picture...

if you're a movie critic or one of those Foreign Press members, it's 12 Years A Slave. If you're an actor, it's American Hustle. If you're a Producer, it's 12 Years A Slave AND Gravity.

So there's three front-runners as the lobbying starts. There's still the BAFTAs in three weeks, and that might nudge undecided voters towards 12 Years. It's also the only awards show where Behind the Candelabra, which wound up on HBO because movie studios were reluctant to distribute it, could wind up beating any of the Oscar nominees. If that happens, laughter from HBO and Steven Soderbergh would be so loud. It's up for three awards, including Adapted Screenplay, but it would be funny if it won something.

My guess is 12 Years will win once reluctant voters sit down and see how daring and serious this move really is. Again, the final vote will be close, but it will win. Gravity will own the tech awards section.

But getting back to those who didn't make the final five but should have...there is a solution:

Increasing the list of Best Picture nominations to a maximum of ten was a good idea. Now apply it to acting, directing and writing.

This was one unusual movie year with more good nominations than usual. If you increased the limit of nominations aside from Best Picture to seven, Oprah would be up for Supporting Actress, Redford, Hanks and Michael B. Jordan for Best Actor, Emma Thompson would be up for Best Actress. Thus, you'd have a more interesting ballot that recognizes the full list of good nominees.

Some were upset Davis was shut out, along with The Butler, not to mention Mud, Spectatcular Now, Rush, Way, Way Back, and Fruitvale Station. Throw in The Hunt and Blue is the Warmest Color, too. They could have gotten nominations, too. Some are blaming it on short-attention-span or maybe not much long-term memory.

If we went to seven, here's Best Actor:

Tom Hanks, Michael B. Jordan, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Matthew McConaughey, Christian Bale, Robert Redford, Bruce Dern

Best Actress:

Amy Adams, Cate Blanchett, Emma Thompson, Judi Dench, Meryl Streep, Sandra Bullock, Adele Exarchopoulos

Supporting Actor:

Jared Leto, Jonah Hill, Will Forte, Daniel Bruhl, Barkhad Abdi, Michael Fassbender, Bradley Cooper (McConaughey would fit in for Mud, but it could have been a leading role)

Supporting Actress:

Jennifer Lawrence, Octavia Spencer, Lupita Nyong'o, June Squibb, Sally Hawkins, Julia Roberts, Oprah Winfrey

As for direction,  Ryan Coogler and Spike Jonze should be added to make seven there. Adapted Screenplay should include The Butler and August: Osage County, while Fruitvale Station and Inside Llewyn Davis could have made the Original Screenplay list.

Blue is the Warmest Color didn't qualify for Foreign Film due to missing an entry deadline, but it could have been considered in other categories. Adele Exarchopolous and Lea Seydoux would be in there, along with Adapted Screenplay. It's racy, at the level of Last Tango In Paris. That may put off some voters, but winners at Cannes usually get in the Oscar race.

I'd propose adding a couple of documentaries to the final list, namely Blackfish and Stories We Tell. 

Now, maybe 2014 will wind up as a down year in movies in terms of quality. It's too soon to tell, but if there's a situation where five nominations for the major acting, writing and directing awards is too few, add one or two more if it's needed. It would have averted the year of "where's Affleck and Bigelow?"

An Odd Couple of AIDS Activists: Review of "Dallas Buyers Club"

Ron Woodruff is the definition of a Texas redneck. An electrician by trade, he lives hard and loves hard. He overdoses on women, drugs, booze and anything else.
In 1985, he finds out he is HIV positive, and has 30 days to live. He fights to have a little more time, and winds up being one of the most unlikely AIDS activists.

This is the story behind Dallas Buyers Club, which may also be an excellent example of two actors making major commitments to create the best performances.
First off, look at how Matthew McConaughey had to change his leading man look to be Woodruff:

He not only lost 50 pounds, but all the baggage from being in lame romcoms Kate Hudson and Sarah Jessica Parker. True, he's also done good work in recent movies like Killer Joe and Mud, but nothing like this.
When Woodruff gets the news, he does what most people do: deny it through any means necessary. When it finally dawns on him of what has happened, and maybe when it happened, he reads what he can about drugs like AZT, the first drug the FDA approved for treatment despite serious side effects. He also hears about alternative methods and drugs that haven't gotten FDA approval, or even noticed. To be clear, he's partially doing it to benefit others, but it's really because of himself and earning cash. McConaughey does a great job making sure that Woodruff is no saint, but still willing to provide treatment options aside from AZT. This includes impersonating a priest and a researcher to get "unapproved" drugs from China, Japan and Mexico.

The performance most people will talk about is Jared Leto as Reyon. He's on an AZT trial program, but sells part of his dosage to help someone else...and for the money. Soon he and Ron create a unique way to distribute alternative drugs and try to keep one step ahead of the FDA. Most people remember Leto from My So Called Life and his band, 30 Seconds to Mars:

Seeing him as Reyon will stun a lot of people. He is someone you don't forget.

It's safe to say Leto's return to acting will get a lot of applause, and lead to a few awards after the New Year.

Jennifer Garner is also good as Eve Saks, who helps run one of the AZT trials for a hospital in Dallas, but slowly realizes that Ron's unorthodox ways may have its merits.

One reviewer said in a podcast that the FDA's heavy-handed way to stop Ron was a bit far-fetched. Then again, this was during the days of the War on Drugs. The battle may have included anyone who made the FDA look bad, so how the FDA agent is portrayed made sense.

Dallas Buyers Club is not only a great story about how a real redneck made sure AIDS patients got care that would keep them alive, but it's also a fine showcase of two great actors.

As I said in my review of 12 Years A Slave, the battle for Best Actor at the Academy Awards will be an endurance race. While Robert Redford will be the sentimental favorite for All Is Lost, McConaughey and Chiwetel Ejiofor cannot and should not be ignored. That's why I'm hoping it will be a split vote right through the Oscars next March. As for Leto, it looks like he'll be the 2014 version of Anne Hathaway, although McConaughey may give him a run for his money for his performance in Mud.