The End of Awards Week: What Have We Learned?

After four award shows in one week, or two according to award snobs, the races for the major Academy Awards seem to be shaking out, but not as some expected.

Before the Oscar nominations were announced a few days ago, many people expected Tom Hanks for Best Actor, Oprah Winfrey for Supporting Actress, Robert Redford for Best Actor, and Inside Lleywn Davis and The Butler (we know which one) in the Best Picture list.

Matthew McConaughey for Best Actor? Maybe, but not a front-runner for that award. Too much smell from all those sad rom-coms in his career.

Her for any award? A man in love with his computer? Eeewww. Why is that a movie? What's next, remaking Flowers In The....never mind.

Well, this is what we've learned: some have settled, but Best Picture may lead to a real debate.

McConaughey is washing all the rom-coms out of his hair. His performance in  Dallas Buyers Club got less attention than Chiwetel Ejiofor's performance in 12 Years A Slave. After sweeping three award shows, it looks like he is the front-runner.There will be a lot of lobbying for Ejiofor, who may be held back by the reluctance of some people to see his movie. True, 12 Years A Slave is a brutal look at slavery, but it's real, and should be seen. Ejiofor is great as a free Black man who is sold into slavery, and endures a lot of pain and suffering to get back his freedom. This competition could get close in the final days of voting, but I'm starting to think McConaughey will win. I'll root for Ejiofor, though.

Supporting Actor is done. It was done the second Jared Leto's nomination was announced.

On the female side, Cate Blanchett may be a lock for Blue Jasmine. The only factor that could derail that result is Amy Adams getting five nominations in less than ten years, and some may say she is due for a win. Blanchett won previously for The Aviator. Still, it looks like it will be a win for Blanchett.

Supporting Actress had been forecast as a two-woman race between Jennifer Lawrence and Lupita Nyong'o, but Nyong'o may win here. There's hasn't been an actor winning two years in a row since Tom Hanks in 1994, and it's unlikely that's going to change this year.

Best Director is as done as Supporting Actor. Alfonso Cuaron is the easy winner for Gravity.

For writing, Spike Jonze may win for Her, because the story is just a new take on love. Adapted Screenplay should go to 12 Years A Slave.

Now, Best Picture...

if you're a movie critic or one of those Foreign Press members, it's 12 Years A Slave. If you're an actor, it's American Hustle. If you're a Producer, it's 12 Years A Slave AND Gravity.

So there's three front-runners as the lobbying starts. There's still the BAFTAs in three weeks, and that might nudge undecided voters towards 12 Years. It's also the only awards show where Behind the Candelabra, which wound up on HBO because movie studios were reluctant to distribute it, could wind up beating any of the Oscar nominees. If that happens, laughter from HBO and Steven Soderbergh would be so loud. It's up for three awards, including Adapted Screenplay, but it would be funny if it won something.

My guess is 12 Years will win once reluctant voters sit down and see how daring and serious this move really is. Again, the final vote will be close, but it will win. Gravity will own the tech awards section.

But getting back to those who didn't make the final five but should have...there is a solution:

Increasing the list of Best Picture nominations to a maximum of ten was a good idea. Now apply it to acting, directing and writing.

This was one unusual movie year with more good nominations than usual. If you increased the limit of nominations aside from Best Picture to seven, Oprah would be up for Supporting Actress, Redford, Hanks and Michael B. Jordan for Best Actor, Emma Thompson would be up for Best Actress. Thus, you'd have a more interesting ballot that recognizes the full list of good nominees.

Some were upset Davis was shut out, along with The Butler, not to mention Mud, Spectatcular Now, Rush, Way, Way Back, and Fruitvale Station. Throw in The Hunt and Blue is the Warmest Color, too. They could have gotten nominations, too. Some are blaming it on short-attention-span or maybe not much long-term memory.

If we went to seven, here's Best Actor:

Tom Hanks, Michael B. Jordan, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Matthew McConaughey, Christian Bale, Robert Redford, Bruce Dern

Best Actress:

Amy Adams, Cate Blanchett, Emma Thompson, Judi Dench, Meryl Streep, Sandra Bullock, Adele Exarchopoulos

Supporting Actor:

Jared Leto, Jonah Hill, Will Forte, Daniel Bruhl, Barkhad Abdi, Michael Fassbender, Bradley Cooper (McConaughey would fit in for Mud, but it could have been a leading role)

Supporting Actress:

Jennifer Lawrence, Octavia Spencer, Lupita Nyong'o, June Squibb, Sally Hawkins, Julia Roberts, Oprah Winfrey

As for direction,  Ryan Coogler and Spike Jonze should be added to make seven there. Adapted Screenplay should include The Butler and August: Osage County, while Fruitvale Station and Inside Llewyn Davis could have made the Original Screenplay list.

Blue is the Warmest Color didn't qualify for Foreign Film due to missing an entry deadline, but it could have been considered in other categories. Adele Exarchopolous and Lea Seydoux would be in there, along with Adapted Screenplay. It's racy, at the level of Last Tango In Paris. That may put off some voters, but winners at Cannes usually get in the Oscar race.

I'd propose adding a couple of documentaries to the final list, namely Blackfish and Stories We Tell. 

Now, maybe 2014 will wind up as a down year in movies in terms of quality. It's too soon to tell, but if there's a situation where five nominations for the major acting, writing and directing awards is too few, add one or two more if it's needed. It would have averted the year of "where's Affleck and Bigelow?"

Review of Frozen: This Ain't Your Father's Disney Musical

Once upon a time, Walt Disney Pictures made animated features based on fairy tales where there was a beautiful princess who had to be saved by a Prince Charming, and it all ended happily ever after.

Then Enchanted came along and made a bunch of money. and Disney decided that the old formula could be revamped and improved. That's why Brave won Best Animated Feature at the Oscars last February.

The likely winner in 2014 is Frozen, a new spin on Hans Christen Anderson's "The Snow Queen" and Disney musicals in general. There's the beautiful princess, and two handsome love interests. However, the villain isn't where you expect.

It begins in Arendelle, where there are two princesses, Anna (Kristen Bell--yep, Veronica Mars could have done her own musical if given the chance) and Elsa (Idina Menzel). Elsa has the power to produce winter, but it causes an accident that almost kills Anna. The King and Queen decide to keep the sisters separate, and erase the memory of the accident. The castle is also closed to everyone. After the King and Queen die, Elsa is about to take the throne. While she looks cold, she is struggling to keep her icy touch in check. The pressures overcome her, and she puts the kingdom under eternal winter.  She's forced to leave and build her own Castle of Solitude.

Meanwhile, Anna wants to marry Prince Hans (Santino Fontana) after knowing him for one entire song. Elsa objects, which caused her power to go out of control. Anna endures very cold conditions to get her sister back with some help from Kristoff (Johnathan Groff), an ice deliverer, and his reindeer named Sven. Kristoff is also skeptical about Anna thinking Hans is "meant to be".
To serve as comic relief, there's a talking snowman named Olaf (Josh Gad) who wants to experience summer...although he's not aware of what that's like. There's a great song where he dreams of being in summer and getting a tan.

What's great about this movie is that Elsa is not the villain. She is the victim of a power she'd give anything to lose, but thinks pushing people away is the only thing she can do. Her fear amplfiies that power to disastrous results, and freezes her sister's heart. When Anna is told that true love can save her, she thinks kissing Prince Hans will solve everything.

She is right. True love will save everyone. Where it really comes from makes this a very different kind of Disney musical. It's a great story, with Disney princesses taking charge of the "happily ever after" part. It also has two songs that could get Oscar gold. My choice would be "Let It Go" over "For the First Time in Forever", but "Reindeer Are Better Than People" may be a cult hit.

UPDATE: here's "Let It Go", thanks to YouTube...



Before the movie, there is what seems to be a Mickey Mouse cartoon from 1929 called "Get A Horse". After a minute or two, it's more than that. We see the original Mickey Mouse emerge from the screen..in 3-D. That genre-bending touch could lead to the Mouse's first Oscar for Best Animated Short. He won in 1932 for being created, but not in competition.

As far as the trailers are concerned, there's going to be a flood of new animated movies. There's The Nut Job, about squirrels hoping to break into a nut shop to survive the winter, the Lego Movie, about a Lego piece who is "the chosen one" for some mission, and Walking With Dinosaurs, which might remind people of The Land Before Time. There was also the trailer for Muppets Most Wanted, where Kermit is mistaken for a jewel thief. Even with Tina Fey with a ridiculous accent, Ty Burrell with a pencil-thin mustache, and Danny Trejo somehow appearing, I'm not sure about this one.

I also saw Hunger Games: Catching Fire recently. This franchise will succeed through the end thanks to Jennifer Lawrence. She's born to be Katniss, and her performance is the best thing about this movie. he movie is wise to show that just because she and Peeta survived the 74th Games doesn't mean they go back to their lives as nothing happened. The scars from that experience reveal themselves time and again. She's also identfied as a threat to the status quo at Panem, and a symbol of revolt. She'd rather not have this status, but the more the government responds in severe ways, the more she's willing to fight. Her last defining moment in this movie is proof of that. It should be interesting how they turn Mockingjay into two movies, since the overall plot goes from a game to a war.