Predicting the 2019 Oscars

It's been a while since I wrote a blog about awards that will be seen by (if I'm lucky) 50 people.
As the Oscars are poised to start in a few days, some races have all but settled, but some are not.

If anything is still unsettled, it's what movie will get the top prize. Green Book has been getting top awards from the Producers Guild and the Golden Globes, Roma just got Best Picture at the BAFTAs, while the Screen Actors Guild declared Black Panther as its pick.
The Oscars have never given Best Picture to a foreign language film, with Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon coming the closest 17 years ago. Otherwise, Roma would be the top pick. It's a great film about a maid and the family she works for in Mexico City in the 1970s. Alberto Cuaron has done a wonderful job showing their story and throwing in some symbolism (trading one car that doesn't fit the garage for something smaller showing how the family's status has changed, for example; there's also the mystical leader who's not so superhuman as Cleo the maid proves). He's likely to get Best Director, and maybe Screenplay and Cinematography, too.
Aside from the movie not being in English, its other problem is that Netflix made it. Could the Academy actually reward a streaming service?

Green Book may be the alternative choice, maybe the safe one. It's an old-fashioned tale about two different people, a cultured pianist who's also Black and a guy from the Bronx, who develop a friendship as the pianist tours the Deep South. Mahershala Ali as Don Shirley will likely get his second award in three years, but the movie seems to be made too late. It would get more respect if it was made in the '90s, but not quite now. It's good, but not quite Best Picture material.
Besides, how can you compare it to BlackKKlansman, about a Black cop who infiltrates the KKK by using a White cop to pose as him? This says a lot more about race relations and doesn't sugar-coat it a lot. That might jolt the older Oscar voters, but it's still a great movie. It's my choice for Adapted Screenplay.

So, I think Green Book will win Best Picture because it's the "safe move". Roma, though, is the real Best Picture, streaming and language aside. It's still lame the major theater chains don't include this movie in its "Oscar festivals".

For a while, I thought The Favourite would be Best Picture material, but maybe some people aren't attracted to a story that's basically "Masterpiece Theater after dark". Two women jostle for the title of Queen Anne's BFF, and they stop at nothing to do that. The fact that it's a bisexual triangle may not be the historic epic people would feel comfortable with. It may pick up an Oscar or two for hairstyling and costume design, but could get Original Screenplay over Green Book.

Some people, like the BAFTAs, think Rachel Weisz has a chance for Supporting Actress, but vote-splitting with co-star Emma Stone might hold her back. Regina King has done well in this category for If Beale Street Could Talk, and could win on Oscar night. Some are hoping Amy Adams will finally win for Vice, but it looks like it's King who will win.

Before we get to the acting noms, let's recognize that Black Panther could also be the big winner if it picks up more than one Oscar. It's up for Best Picture, which is a victory in itself, but it should get a couple of tech awards like Production Design and Costume Design. It's also in the sound nominations, but Roma could edge it out there. It would be great it BP got Best Picture, but only if the Oscar voters are too afraid to choose Roma and can't decide what to choose instead.

Also, the Academy should apologize to Bradley Cooper for snubbing him harder than Orson Welles and The Color Purple. The Gold Derby pundits have said the stock for A Star Is Born is dropping despite winning at the Grammys and BAFTAs. It'll get Best Song, but it's kind of strange Cooper is shown singing and playing guitar (which he learned before filming) and isn't getting more respect.
Maybe it's because it's a remake, but this article shows the movie was trickier to approve and make than it seemed. He should have gotten more attention, and hopefully he'll get more from this.

At least the Oscars will show all the categories live, after lots of Hollywood big shots thought it was stupid to givefour awards during commerical breaks and give the acceptance speeches later. If the Grammys are OK at 3 1/2 hours, even if it's mostly music (natch), so can the Oscars. They should treat it like the Super Bowl: 7 PM Eastern has the Red Carpet Show, then the main event at 8 PM. Simple. Then the late-night wrap-up at E! or the local ABC channel.

Now, back to the categories...
After seeing Bohemian Rhapsody, Rami Malek has a solid future after Mr. Robot. I'm not completely sold on his portrayal of Freddie Mercury. He really got into the skin of the guy when they showed how they recorded the famous song, and the tough scene when he admitted to Mary he's bisexual. If they let him take as much time as he could really singing as Freddie, instead of mixing voice tracks to simulate him, it would have been better. Ask Gary Busey when he played Buddy Holly or Sissy Spacek as Loretta Lynn.

Compare that to Christian Bale being Dick Cheney in Vice. He had the veep cold, even explaining he saved the nation by any means necessary. That was chilling.
Still, Malek may win because enough Oscar voters don't want to approve of any movie that explains Cheney. Bale could pull it out, but it seems more likely Son of Mr. Robot will edge him out.

Meanwhile, Glenn Close's chances at winning Best Actress went way up once more people saw The Wife on VOD or disc. The story of (literally) the woman behind a soon-to-be Nobel laureate was typical, but Close's performance literally drove this movie. Just see her reaction when her husband, Joe Castleman, tries to thank her when he gets the award, and when she calls herself a "kingmaker". That is enough to get her the prize. If she wins, it may be considered a "lifetime achievement" Oscar but that role alone is enough to get her the prize.

Olivia Colman has won a BAFTA and an Golden Globe as Queen Anne in The Favourite, but the fact it's not quite a typical costume drama has hurt her chances. Also, Weisz and Stone has gotten more attention for their rivalry in the movie. Lady Gaga was considered a possible winner here, but she's already won for making a great remake with Cooper.

So, can the Oscars get more viewers with no host and way-too-much backstage drama? If it is a good show that finishes at 11:30 Eastern, it could.
Still, it would be nice if it ended with two words:  Wakanda Forever!