The Academy Awards are six days away, and it looks like the results are already settled.
The acting races are all but over. Laura Dern and Brad Pitt will get the supporting nods, although the races should have been closer. Pitt should have had a stronger challenge from Tom Hanks with his Mister Rogers movie, and Dern should have had good rivals like Florence Pugh for Little Women and Scarlett Johannson for Jojo Rabbit.
Joaquin Phoenix will have the last laugh in Best Actor for Joker, while Renee Zellweger will win for Judy in the quickest result since Helen Mirren. The Academy never gave Judy Garland's acting skills the respect they deserved (see Judgement at Nuremberg), and Renee's amazing recreation of the fading star is award-worthy and has been since October.
Parasite is a lock for International Film and Original Screenplay. It should also be Best Picture except Academy voters don't like to reward movies you have to read. Too bad, since it's the complete package: a good story about a poor family who cons their way to a nice gig working for rich folk, nice direction and good acting, too. The father dealing with a boss who doesn't give him more respect is an interesting guy and the con woman/daughter would give Dern a run for her money. The war movie 1917 seems to be the favorite because of its epic war scenes, but showing it in one long take still seems to make it a gimmick. The stock for The Irishman fell steadily once people saw it's just a mob movie with DeNiro and Pacino looking younger via CGI.
If there is one real battle, it's the race for Adapted Screenplay. It's a very competitive list:
So far, Jojo Rabbit has won in the BAFTAs and Writers' Guild Awards, while Little Women won the USC Scripter Award which has been a good predictor on which movies wins in the Oscars.
Either of these movies could win Adapted Screenplay. Let's look at the pros and cons.
Jojo Rabbit, at first glance, would be a surprising choice. A boy in Nazi Germany has Hitler for an imaginary friend, then finds out her mom is hiding Elsa, a Jewish girl, in their house. No one would think that would make a good movie, but Taika Waititi does it. He's wise to emphasize Jojo's relationship with his mom, while wrestling with how his previous "expertise" about Jews is just plain wrong. It doesn't hurt that he's got a crush for the girl, too. It's also interesting the movie is an complete overhaul on Caging Skies, the book the movie's based on. The original is much darker, especially the relationship between Jojo and Elsa.What might scare voters is having Hitler in the movie, although the script gradually shifts him from comforting pal to jealous friend. That takes the focus away from him and to Jojo with his mom and Elsa.
Meanwhile, Greta Gerwig's version of Little Women takes a different angle to previous movie versions. It's the story of how Jo March publishes her new book, Little Women.Yes, Jo is Louisa May Alcott in this movie. The story is told in a different way, with some flashbacks. That's only because she's trying to see the book for publication to Dashwood. That's why she "negotiates" the ending with him. Also, it finally gives some sympathy towards Amy March thanks to her "economic proposition" speech about marriage.
At this point, Jojo Rabbit seems to be the favorite, but Little Women should not be dismissed. A lot of people were upset Gerwig's direction was snubbed by the Academy (and Golden Globes and Directors Guild). It wouldn't be surprising if she got Adapted Screenplay as a consolation prize. There will be some last-minute lobbying based on that, and will give the show some interest from movie fans. My choice of Gerwig, but Waititi would also be good.
Maybe next year, the Oscars can do something that will guarantee more viewers: the courage to have a host, and not be ashamed of who they choose....as long as it's Aubrey Plaza.
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