Now That The Oscar Primaries Are Over...

February is here, and in Reno we'll be lucky if Spring arrives in April, judging from the snow we had over the weekend. Still, maybe it will melt just before the Oscars in four weeks.

Anyway, three award shows are in the books, the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and SAG Awards. The Best Picture race is now a three-movie race, while the Best Actor and Actress races are just about done. I'd include Supporting Actress, but that race may be settled if the new front-runner wins at the BAFTAs for her other movie.

First off, Brie Larson and Leonardo DiCaprio are your Best Actress and Actor of 2016, period. Brie's dominance is earned, and if you saw her in Room, you know why. For DiCaprio, it's just his turn, but an old trick has also helped him. After being in suits and romantic roles, he went out of his comfort zone as a mountain main dealing with a bear  and a double-crossing friend in order to survive. It's really impressed the voters, and it looks like he'll finally get his Oscar.

In my last two-bit opinion piece on the Oscars, I thought Rooney Mara would win for Carol, but the movie's stock is sinking. A TV spot that ABC won't air because it features Mara and Cate Blanchett kissing in bed--and topless (which would have set off the Parents Television Council's letter-writing alarm)--isn't helping, either. Mara could win at the BAFTAs on Valentine's Day because she won for the same role at Cannes. Her competition includes Jennifer Jason Leigh for Hateful 8, Kate Winslet for Steve Jobs (which got her a Golden Globe), and Alicia Vikander for Ex Machina. Vikander's already won SAG and Critics' Choice Awards for her role in The Danish Girl, but she's in the Best Actress race at the BAFTAs. Larson should win there, but if Vikander wins for Ex Machina, she'll be the big favorite come Oscar time. If Mara wins, her chances will get better. It all depends on what the BAFTAs will do.

The race for Supporting Actor will not be affected by the BAFTAs, though. Those who saw the SAGs know why. Idris Elba won for Beasts of No Nation (available on Netflix), and he's a nominee at the BAFTAs. He could win there, and also faces a challenge from Mark Rylance, who played a Russian spy in Bridge of Spies. Mark Ruffalo from Spotlight is also there but Sylvester Stallone from Creed is not. Stallone is still considered the sentimental favorite to win at the Oscars, with Ruffalo his biggest competition. If Elba also snagged a nomination there, he could have gotten a serious look,. Maybe Oscar voters should have realized the movie wasn't made just for Netflix. In any case, a win by Elba in London will show what could have been.

People are hoping for a real battle for Best Picture. Spotlight was considered the favorite until The Revenant got Best Drama at the Golden Globes. Then the Producers Guild said The Big Short (aka The "Better Grasp of the US Economy Than The Wall Street Journal" Movie) was Best Picture. This was big because it's had a better track record of predicting the top film at the Oscars than most award shows. Spotlight still has the edge mainly because of its win at the SAG Awards, and I think it will win at the Oscars. Voters may like that movie better than a movie made by the guy who made the Anchorman movies and has the gall to use Margot Robbie in a bathtub to explain sub-prime loans better than CNBC. Then again, it will be enough for Adam McKay to get Adapted Screenplay, and maybe Best Director. The only way this changes if the BAFTAs do choose The Big Short over Spotlight.

P.S. Just saw Beasts of No Nation. Either the Oscar voters thought this was made for TV (or actually streaming TV) or they were just too scared of this movie. I'll have more about this later, but Idris Elba could have given Sylvester Stallone and Mark Ruffalo runs for their money in the Supporting Actor race.

Their life is a sinking ship...again

It was a little more than eleven years ago that two young movie stars, Kate Winslet and Leonardo DiCaprio, were the "it couple" of Hollywood thanks to a massive and gigantic movie called Titanic. They portrayed Jack and Rose in a classic love story that would defy the world...but not a sinking ocean liner. It would still make a zillion dollar and win a ton of Oscars.

For some reason, the studios never got the chance to pair them off for another movie again. Looking back, it may have been just as well. These two actors have been reunited in a dark look at suburban life in the '50's, Revolutionary Road. It hasn't dominated movie screens as their last movie, but it's still a sharp look at how "happily ever after" isn't.

It may also be one of two reasons why Winslet's bad luck at the Oscars will finally end. Her portrayal of April Wheeler, a housewife who was hoping to be more than just a housewife, is just wonderful. You can just see the pain inside her, as she tries to revive even the hope of a life she had hoped she'd have with her husband, Frank.
DiCaprio is also great as Frank, and it looks like he may be overlooked by the Oscars in favor of Frank Langella, Sean Penn or Mickey Rourke. Still, there's no overlooking his portrayal as a man who may wish he had a more exciting life, but that doesn't mean he'd go all the way to make the wish come true.

I know some people have been "disappointed" with the movie, and calling it "Mad Men, the movie." Well, this isn't set in 1960, where the world is about to change. It's in 1955, when you were expected to say your suburban life is Heaven on Earth. When we first meet Frank and April in 1948, they are taken to each other, and have wonderful dreams of an exciting life. She'd be a successful actress and he'd do something creative. Cut to 1955, it hasn't worked out that way. They have two kids and the usual two-bedroom home. It's enough for most couples, but not them. April then decides they should chuck it all and move to Paris, and Frank likes this idea. He doesn't seem to be too special at his job, so why not a fresh start? Who knows, maybe he'll wind up being King of the World.

However, their plans hit two icebergs, which other people would think are actually blessings. It's safe to say this changes everything, especially the Wheelers' expectations for the future. You kind of wonder if Jack and Rose could handle the same situation if they lived in the mid '50's.

Some have also compared this movie to American Beauty, which. like Road, is directed by Sam Mendes. The only difference is that Frank and April at least try to stay together, but their desires won't allow that. Compare that to the life of the neighbors Milly and Shep, played by Kathryn Hahn and David Harbour. When they hear of the Wheelers' Paris dreams, Milly actually weeps. They quickly try to convince themselves their life is still the best, but there is that envy. Also in the mix is Michael Shannon as John, the son of a realtor who has been in a mental institution but has more insight on the Wheelers' lives than anyone.

It's a tough movie to see, but it is worth your while because of Winslet and DiCaprio's performances. It sure beats Bride Wars, even though most movies would. But, in case you want a hard-fought fairy tale, Slumdog Millionaire is for you.

All that's left for me is The Wrestler, which will finally reach Sacramento this weekend, but at only one theater. You'd think after Rourke's big win at the Golden Globes, more theaters would show it. Well, I'm sure the release will get wider after the nominations are announced next week. After seeing the trailer several times, though, I just can't wait anymore.