Now That The Oscar Primaries Are Over...

February is here, and in Reno we'll be lucky if Spring arrives in April, judging from the snow we had over the weekend. Still, maybe it will melt just before the Oscars in four weeks.

Anyway, three award shows are in the books, the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and SAG Awards. The Best Picture race is now a three-movie race, while the Best Actor and Actress races are just about done. I'd include Supporting Actress, but that race may be settled if the new front-runner wins at the BAFTAs for her other movie.

First off, Brie Larson and Leonardo DiCaprio are your Best Actress and Actor of 2016, period. Brie's dominance is earned, and if you saw her in Room, you know why. For DiCaprio, it's just his turn, but an old trick has also helped him. After being in suits and romantic roles, he went out of his comfort zone as a mountain main dealing with a bear  and a double-crossing friend in order to survive. It's really impressed the voters, and it looks like he'll finally get his Oscar.

In my last two-bit opinion piece on the Oscars, I thought Rooney Mara would win for Carol, but the movie's stock is sinking. A TV spot that ABC won't air because it features Mara and Cate Blanchett kissing in bed--and topless (which would have set off the Parents Television Council's letter-writing alarm)--isn't helping, either. Mara could win at the BAFTAs on Valentine's Day because she won for the same role at Cannes. Her competition includes Jennifer Jason Leigh for Hateful 8, Kate Winslet for Steve Jobs (which got her a Golden Globe), and Alicia Vikander for Ex Machina. Vikander's already won SAG and Critics' Choice Awards for her role in The Danish Girl, but she's in the Best Actress race at the BAFTAs. Larson should win there, but if Vikander wins for Ex Machina, she'll be the big favorite come Oscar time. If Mara wins, her chances will get better. It all depends on what the BAFTAs will do.

The race for Supporting Actor will not be affected by the BAFTAs, though. Those who saw the SAGs know why. Idris Elba won for Beasts of No Nation (available on Netflix), and he's a nominee at the BAFTAs. He could win there, and also faces a challenge from Mark Rylance, who played a Russian spy in Bridge of Spies. Mark Ruffalo from Spotlight is also there but Sylvester Stallone from Creed is not. Stallone is still considered the sentimental favorite to win at the Oscars, with Ruffalo his biggest competition. If Elba also snagged a nomination there, he could have gotten a serious look,. Maybe Oscar voters should have realized the movie wasn't made just for Netflix. In any case, a win by Elba in London will show what could have been.

People are hoping for a real battle for Best Picture. Spotlight was considered the favorite until The Revenant got Best Drama at the Golden Globes. Then the Producers Guild said The Big Short (aka The "Better Grasp of the US Economy Than The Wall Street Journal" Movie) was Best Picture. This was big because it's had a better track record of predicting the top film at the Oscars than most award shows. Spotlight still has the edge mainly because of its win at the SAG Awards, and I think it will win at the Oscars. Voters may like that movie better than a movie made by the guy who made the Anchorman movies and has the gall to use Margot Robbie in a bathtub to explain sub-prime loans better than CNBC. Then again, it will be enough for Adam McKay to get Adapted Screenplay, and maybe Best Director. The only way this changes if the BAFTAs do choose The Big Short over Spotlight.

P.S. Just saw Beasts of No Nation. Either the Oscar voters thought this was made for TV (or actually streaming TV) or they were just too scared of this movie. I'll have more about this later, but Idris Elba could have given Sylvester Stallone and Mark Ruffalo runs for their money in the Supporting Actor race.

2016 Oscars: Mountain Men, Mad Max and Martians

The first campaign everyone cares about has begun.
Oscar nominations are out, and one of the first subjects discussed is a lack in diversity. The acting nominations have kicked off the #OscarsSoWhite hashtag, while Alejandro Inarratu could be the first man to win two Best Director awards since 1950.
The Revenant wound up getting the most nominations, threatening Spotlight's position as a front-runner, while a guy named Max made a very big splash.

So, let's look at the categories:

BEST FILM: The Revenant has the most with 12 nominations, although it doesn't include a screenplay spot. It's bound to get a few tech awards, and Best Actor for Leonardo DiCaprio. The fact that he's way out of his comfort zone battling betrayal, nature and a big bear could be enough for him to get the award. Spotlight could upset thanks to being in the Original Screenplay race, and supporting acting noms for Mark Ruffalo and Rachel Nichols. The Martian could also be in the race, except Ridley Scott's not in the Best Director race.
IT WOULD HAVE BEEN NICE IF:  Star Wars: The Force Awakens was the ninth Best Pictire nominee. It brought back this franchise in a big way, and it's about time a blockbuster was at least in the Best Film race. It will still be up for five awards, Jurassic World could have also been on this list if it treated its female characters with more respect through all of the movie. That's why it's shut out.
Carol is also not in the Best Picture race. Some will suggest it's because they don't want Fox News to be angry, and I'm worried that could be the reason

BEST ACTOR:  With 12 nominations behind him for The Revenant, it's gotta be Leo's year. The only threats would be Matt Damon, who also goes through a lot in The Martian, and Michael Fassbender for Steve Jobs 
IT WOULD HAVE BEEN NICE IF:  Steve Carrell was in the race for The Big Short. He was the Angry Stockbroker who couldn't belive how much of a mess Wall Street was ten years ago.

BEST ACTRESS:  Another race that's over before it began. Brie Larson's performance as the kidnapped mother in Room (which just reached Reno) has been praised by everyone, and she is the favorite. If there's any threat, maybe Cate Blanchett for Carol.
IT WOULD HAVE BEEN NICE IF:  Charlize Theron could have been added for Mad Max Fury Road. She was truly the main heroine in this movie

SUPPORTING ACTOR:  This is fairly tricky because a good contender, Idris Elba, is not in the Oscar race. He's in the SAG and BAFTA Awards races, though. The sentimental favorite is Sylvester Stallone for Creed (aka Rocky 5.5), but I'll choose Mark Ruffalo for his role as one of the relentless Boston Globe reporters in Spotlight.
IT WOULD HAVE BEEN NICE IF:  Harrison Ford got Stallone's spot. The return of Han Solo was just as big a deal as the return of Rocky, and he helped make Star Wars: The Force Awakens work.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:  The two front-runners got their spots for portraying someone familiar. Jennifer Jason Leigh was an Old West version of Janis Joplin (at least according to someone at Adam Carolla's podcast) facing the hangman's noose in The Hateful 8. She was defiant to her fate, especially in the final act. However, Rooney Mara as an Audrey Hepburn-type who has the devotion of a housewife in Carol may be enough for her to win.
IT WOULD HAVE BEEN NICE IF:  Helen Mirren was in the race for Trumbo. She's great at being queens, but her portrayal as gossip columnist (and self-appointed vaccine against Communism) Hedda Hopper was chilling.

BEST DIRECTOR:  With Ridley Scott out of the race, it will be a three-man race between Inarritu, Adam McKay for The Big Short and Tom McCarthy for Spotlight, .Inarritu has brutal nature and incredible scenery, MacKay has the ability to explain economics better than anyone, and McCarthy has a story that shows reporting at its best. Because I doubt we will have a back-to-back winner, I'll choose McKay. George Miller had the toughest job of all, but since it's sci-fi, it won't be his night.
IT WOULD HAVE BEEN NICE IF:  Ridley Scott, what else?. Still also no Todd Haynes for Carol. Is it because it's too controversial, years after Brokeback Mountain?

ALSO....I wish Amy Schumer sneaked into the Original Screenplay race for Trainwreck, but she couldn't hold off Alex Garland's script for Ex Machina. Spotlight will probably win there. Adapated Screenplay will be the toughest race of all, but I'll choose Drew Goddard because of his Joss Whedon ties.
And where's The Good Dinosaur and Minions in Best Animation? It seems the Oscar voters want to prove they won't limit their choices to Hollywood. That's why Japan (When Marnie Was There) and Brazil (Boy and the World) are in the running. It only makes Inside Out's victory more inevitable.

Best Song is a one-song race. Sam Smith will likely win for the theme from Spectre, What's more surprising is that two of the nominees are documentaries, Racing Extincton and The Hunting Ground.

Straight Outta Compton should have gotten more love, especially for O'Shea Jackson Jr, who played his dad Ice Cube.  Although it gor in the Original Screenplay race,  it was still criticized for what it left out, Same story for Concussion, which may have ruined Will Smith's Best Actor bid.

Of course, my predictions are likely to chance (and I'll say so), but this is a good place to start.

Review of The Big Short: The Crash of 2008 For Dummies

What can you say about a movie that explains why the housing market, and the American economy in general, nearly collapsed due to Wall Street fraud better than the Federal Reserve and CNBC..and what they use are Selena Gomez playing blackjack and Margot Robbie in a bathtub in what seemed to be a deleted scene from Wolf of Wall Street?

Adam MacKay, best known for Will Ferrell comedies, wrote and directed a nasty reminder of what happened in America just eight years ago, and how we didn't notice because we were distracted by other things. MacKay uses clever ways to explain complex terms by sub-prime mortgages, CDOs and bond ratings.

The main players are Michael Burry (Christian Bale), who heads a mutual fund, Jared Vennett (Ryan Gosling), who works for Deutsche Bank, Mark Baum (Steve Carell), who runs a small investment firm, and Charlie and Jamie (John Magaro and Finn Whittrock), two guys who made it big by betting against stocks. They all figure out that banks try to get people to invest in mortgages that are not as rock-solid as they think. Anthony Bourdain turning old fish into a new fish stew is the best analogy, and that's really in the movie.

It's really interesting how Burry and Baum come to the conclusion the economy is in big trouble but no one wants to believe it. Baum is especially upset, mostly because he's trying to recover from a personal tragedy. They're all stunned to see empty homes with the owners long gone because they can't pay their mortgages, bond rating houses admitting they'll overvalue just to keep customers and even people who issue bank loans to get commissions without verifying if the prospective homeowner could afford it or not.

Carell is very good as Baum. Those who still identify him as Michael Scott in The Office will be surprised how angry he gets over all of the fraud that's going on.. Bale as the laid-back Burry doesn't do much aside from defending his decision to invest against the mortgages, but you can see the stress when things don't happen as he expects...and why. Gosling is also good, especially when he uses a Jenga game to show how fragile the housing bubble is. Let's not forget Brad Pitt as Ben Rickert, who used to be in banking, and is very cynical about what's happening. He'll still help Charlie and Jamie, though.

The real tragedy is how the crash of 2008 affected the characters, the investment houses and their employees, and people who were economic collateral damage. Even though some got rich betting against the economy, they aren't exactly proud of it (except for one). Besides that, no one learned a thing. It's still a great way to be reminded what happens, as this person says...



For the record, we're still wondering how banking can get into rehab after this.